3-Bet Poker 3a374m
A three-bet, or 3-bet, describes the first re-raise before the flop in poker. If someone raises, you may call, fold,…
Poker Odds 1c375h
This guide covers the key concepts, from calculating outs to understanding pot odds, so you can make informed moves and maximize your chances of winning.
Poker odds are a fundamental concept that every poker player needs to understand to elevate their game and become successful. Knowing the odds of hitting certain hands, making draws, and calculating pot odds can help players make better decisions and improve their chances of winning.
Learning the Odds 5k365v
POKER PROBABILITY 46o1a
Poker probability helps you estimate the chances of seeing certain cards on the flop, turn, or river. In general, each card has about a 2% chance of appearing on any given street, making it easier to estimate your odds for a specific card or draw without extensive calculations.
How to Calculate Your Poker Outs 52n5z
Calculating poker outs helps you understand your chances of improving a hand. An ‘out’ is any card that could enhance your current hand. For example, with two hearts in your hand and two on the flop, you have nine potential outs to complete a flush.
In the table below, you will find some common draw scenarios that show the number of outs you have and the specific cards you will need to hit your draw:
IMPORTANT ‘OUTS’ 3p2a6w
Backdoor: A straight or flush draw where you need two cards to help your hand out.
You have [A K]. Flop shows [T 2 5]. You need both a [J] and [Q] for a straight.
Overcard Draw: When you have a card above the flop.
You have [A 3]. Flop shows [K 5 2]. You need an [A] overcard to make top pair. 3 total outs.
Inside Straight Draw (aka ‘Gutshot’): When you have one way to complete a straight.
You have [J T]. Flop shows [A K 5]. You need a [Q] to complete your straight. 4 total outs.
Open Straight Draw: When you have two ways to complete a straight.
You have [5 6]. Flop shows [7 8 A]. You need a [4] or [9] to complete your straight. 8 total outs.
Flush Draw: Having two cards to a suit with two suits already on the flop.
You have [A♥ K♥]. Flop shows [7♥ 8♥ J♣]. You need any heart to make a flush. 9 total outs.
POKER OUTS SCENARIOS 4a6a4m
So, now that we can determine the probability of any card coming on the flop, turn, or river, how can we use that information? Well, knowing this math is particularly useful when working out your likelihood of making a draw.
Suppose you have a hand like a flush draw or a straight draw. In that case, you can work out how many cards will give you the best hand and calculate the odds of any of those cards appearing.
When I’m playing in my regular poker games, I frequently use these calculations to get a better understanding of my odds of making my hand. Let’s take a look at two recent scenarios where this happened.
In this hand, I was on the turn with a flush draw and facing a bet from my opponent. I was considering a call, but I wanted to know how likely it was I would make my flush on the river. To work this out, this is the thought process I used.
There are thirteen cards of each suit a deck of cards, and if in this hand, I had two diamonds in my hand, with a further two on the flop. That means four cards of that suit have been ed for, leaving nine in the deck. I know that the probability of an individual card appearing on the river is around 2%, and nine cards will give me the best hand on the river. Therefore, I multiplied the 2% chance by 9, which let me know that I had an 18% chance to make my hand on the river.
The first scenario looks at calculating the odds of me making my hand across one street, but I frequently need to know the likelihood of making my hand across two streets. Let’s take a look at an example where I made that calculation; this time I’m on the flop with an open-ended straight draw and my opponent has shoved all-in. Their bet isn’t very big, so I’m considering making the call with my hand, but I need to know how often I will make my hand by the river.
As my opponent is all-in, I know that I’m going to see the river card, so I can calculate the likelihood that I make my hand on both the turn and the river. With my open-ended straight draw, I have two outs to improve. Using our quick calculation, I multiply those 8 outs by 2 to get a 16% chance of making my straight on the turn.
We’ve already seen that this equation works from the turn to the river, so we can run the same calculation again to find that we have a 16% chance of making our hand from the turn to the river. Both the turn card and river card are individual events, which means I can add together the probability of those events occurring to find out my overall probability of making my hand, which is 32%.
However, do bear in mind that this is a rough calculation intended to make it easier to calculate probabilities at the table – the exact calculation is performed in a different way, but this way is good enough for what we need in-game.
Dont Overcount Your Odds 5w432w
Counting your odds seems easy, but beginners often make the mistake of overcounting their odds in situations where they have multiple draws. It’s easy to think you have 9 outs for a flush draw and 4 for a straight and therefore you have 13 outs, but two of those outs are the same card, meaning you really only have 12 outs.
Let’s look at a couple of examples of situations where players may overcount their odds and how it can be avoided.
Poker Odds Chart 672e2d
We’ are going to look at an aspect of poker odds called “pot odds,” which helps you decide whether or not a call is profitable. Pot odds are used in conjunction with other poker math like equity and hand odds.
EXAMPLES OF CORRECT AND INCORRECT POT ODDS 4914m
When calculating your pot odds, it’s important to that not every situation will be profitable. Sometimes you won’t have the odds to call, and you should throw your hand away. You must calculate your pot odds every time you’re faced with a new decision, as your odds can change across multiple streets; it’s common for a profitable flop situation to turn into an unprofitable turn situation.
Profitable Pot Odds 156e5x
In our first example, we’re on the flop with 4♥3♥ and a board of 2♣5♠9♦. Our opponent bets $20 into a $30 pot. Do we have the right odds to call? Let’s take a look.
First, we need to figure out our pot odds. We’re calling $7 into a $30 pot, so let’s see how that looks in our equation:
Pot odds = ($7 / ($7 + $37)) x 100
Pot odds = ($7 / $44) x 100
Pot odds = 0.159 x 100 = 15.9%
So we know we need to win at least 15.9% of the time to break even with our call. Now we need to figure out the likelihood of making our hand by the turn. We have eight outs with our open-ended straight draw, meaning we’ll make our hand on the turn 16% of the time, making this a profitable call.
However, if we think our opponent won’t bet the turn very often, we could have a profitable call, as we’re 32% to make our hand by the river. In spots like these, you need to make a judgment call about what your opponent is likely to do on future streets. Consider your opponent’s playing/hand strength, and stack size.
Unprofitable Pot Odds 2t2e37
Following on from our previous example, we made the call and the turn brought the J♥ – we missed our straight. Our opponent bets again, this time betting $44 into a $44 pot. As we’re facing a new bet, we need to recalculate our pot odds to see if this call is profitable.
To do this, we follow the same process as before; starting by calculating our pot odds. We’re calling a $44 bet into a $44 pot, so let’s look at our equation.
Pot odds = ($44 / ($44 + $88)) x 100
Pot odds = ($44 / $132) x 100
Pot odds = 0.333 x 100 = 33.3%
This means that we need to win the hand 33.3% of the time for our call to be profitable. We know from our previous example that the chances of us making our straight on the next card is 16%, so we do not have a profitable call.
Examples like this are why we need to calculate our odds on every street. Profitable situations quickly become unprofitable, and if you don’t recalculate your odds when facing a new bet, you’ll make a lot of unprofitable calls.
A term you’ll hear a lot when talking about poker odds and expected value is “equity.” Let’s take a closer look at what that is.
What is Equity? 4947e
Equity is your share of the pot based on your chances of winning the hand. If you have 20% equity, you expect to win 20% of the time. Calculating equity can be done in three ways: hand vs. hand, hand vs. range, and range vs. range. Since you never know an opponent’s exact hand, most players calculate hand vs. range equity by comparing their hand to all the hands in an opponent’s potential range.
For a quick estimation, compare your hand against likely hands in your opponent’s range and average them. This approach is commonly used in live games to get a general sense of equity without extensive calculations.
How to Calculate Your EV 5e4c4r
Expected Value (EV) helps you gauge the profitability of a decision by estimating the average outcome over many repetitions. The formula is:
EV = (Win % * $ Won) – (Lose % * $ Lost)
If the result is positive, the call is profitable; if negative, it’s unprofitable.
Example Calculation 29z1p
Suppose you have a flush draw on the turn, and your opponent bets $10 into a $50 pot. You need 16.66% equity to call. If your chance of making the flush is 18%, calculate EV as follows:
EV = (18% * $60) – (82% * $10)
EV = $10.80 – $8.20 = $2.60
Since your EV is positive, calling is a profitable play.
THE FOUR AND TWO RULE 5e6t71
1
Calculate the Outs 43115u
The “Four and Two” rule, sometimes referred to as the 2/4 rule, is one of the most reliable and easy methods of working out the odds of hitting your desired draw on the turn and river. First, after the dealer has drawn the flop, calculate the number of outs left in the deck.
2
Multiply Outs by Four and Two 4i5f47
Then, multiply the number of outs by four to get the percentage chances of you being dealt a winning card on the turn. After the turn, you can multiply the number of outs by two to give you your percentage odds.
For example, if there are 8 outs, then the percentage of you drawing one is 8×4 – 32%. Then multiply the number of outs by two to give you your odds. So if there are still 8 outs, your odds are 16%.
3
Calculate the Ratio Odds r3a4j
Now that you have the odds, you can work out the ratio odds. This is done by dividing the 100 by the percentage and subtracting 1. For example, 100/32 = around 3, so -1, and you have odds of 2/1.
Putting It All Together 4i3b5v
We’ve covered a lot of topics, so let’s put it all together with a real example. In a live $1/$2 cash game, I held Th9h on a board reading J❤️6♣3❤️K♠. The pot was $100, and my opponent shoved for $75. Here’s how I calculated my odds and EV to decide whether to call.
Step 1: Calculate Outs and Probability: I had 12 outs (9 for a flush and 3 for a straight), giving me a 24% chance of improving by the river (12 outs × 2).
Step 2: Calculate Pot Odds: I needed to call $75 to win a total pot of $175, so my pot odds were 42% (75 / 175).
Step 3: Calculate Expected Value (EV): With only a 24% chance to improve, my call wouldn’t be profitable since I needed at least 42% equity. Running the EV:
EV = ($175 * 0.24) – ($75 * 0.76)
EV = $42 – $57 = -$17
The negative EV (-$17) showed that calling would lose money over time, so I folded.
Conclusion 54m1c
Understanding poker odds is essential to becoming a skilled player. From calculating outs to assessing pot odds, applying these concepts will improve your decision-making. Test your skills with our poker odds calculator, where real-life scenarios will help you sharpen your calculations and confidently apply odds in your game.
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Poker Odds FAQs z4g6m
Poker Odds & Probabilities
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To calculate your pot odds, simply divide the amount you have to call by the total size of the pot (current pot + opponent’s bet + your call). For example, if you have to call $100 and the total pot is $400 ($200 current pot + $100 opponent bet + $100 call), you divide 100 by 400, which gives you 0.25, or 25%.
If you have a flush draw on the flop, you have two attempts to hit nine outs, which means that you’re going to hit your flush around a third of the time by the river. However, if you have a flush draw on the turn, you only have one card to improve, so you’ll only make your flush around 18% of the time.
Flushes are rarer than straights in poker, but if you have a flush draw, you are more likely to make it. This is because a flush draw has nine outs, whereas a straight draw only has eight or four outs.
While flushes are rarer than straights, it’s easier to hit a flush draw than a straight draw. This is because a flush draw has nine outs, whereas a straight draw only has eight or four outs.
The 2/4 Rule in poker is a way of easily calculating the odds of you making the best hand. If you want to calculate your odds across one street, simply multiply the number of outs you have by two, and if you want to calculate your odds across two streets, simply multiply the number of outs you have by four.